OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026

The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy.

The outlook is surrounded by high uncertainty and reflects the interaction of two opposing forces:

• On the upside, growth is supported by strong momentum in technology-related investment and production, lower tariff rates than previously assumed, and carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.
• On the downside, the halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure and damage of some energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers.  This is raising costs, weighing on demand and adding to inflationary pressures.
  Source: OECD (2026), OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026: Testing Resilience, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d4623013-en